Here I’ll share some analysis of the “Net Promoter Score” survey that was distributed from late December 2020 to early January 2021.
More than 500 valid responses were obtained through a Facebook ad in effort to obtain a more random sample than would be obtained through organic social media sharing of a survey.
A Net Promoter Score survey commonly asks respondents on a numbered scale how likely they would be to recommend a product to a friend. With those results, the percentage of high responses (in this case ‘5’) is subtracted from percentage of low responses (‘0’ to ‘3’).
There are other interesting analyses to gather from the dataset beyond what was shown in the Industry Report.
For instance: What are the age demographics of viewers of each wrestling program?
Contrary to linear TV viewership, WWE and AEW appear more similar in age. In fact median age across all programs landed in early 40s, with Ring of Honor on the high end and NXT on the low end.
If we breakdown viewing habits by whether you watch “regularly” or “occasionally”, there’s some variance in median age, but it’s not dramatic.
My sense is this is more reflective of the actual fan’s age, as linear measurements skew old, simply because linear TV use skews old.
Still, among those who say they currently watch any wrestling program, the overwhelming majority say they have access to linear television.
Smackdown viewers were slightly less likely to have cable access, which makes sense since Fox can be reached with an OTA antenna.
Turning back to age: Younger AEW viewers were most likely to recommend the program to a friend. In fact, age group seems to be a better predictor of likelihood of recommendation than any particular program. The 50+ age group in general was less likely to recommend any program.
Women were more likely than men to say they would recommend WWE programs, and were more positive on Raw and Smackdown than AEW, which was the opposite for men. Differences were smaller for other programs, but generally men were more enthusiastic about AEW, ROH, and NJPW.
Hispanic/Latino fans were most enthusiastic about NXT. Black fans were slightly less likely to recommend AEW, That may be reflective of TV viewership data, which show AEW has a smaller percentage of African American viewers than WWE programs.
What’s the sentiment of viewers toward different programs? For example, are AEW and WWE fans as opposed in their tastes as they seem sometimes online?
Regular viewers of AEW were less likely to recommend WWE programs. But WWE viewers are positive on Dynamite.
The latter result may be skewed, though, since nearly as many respondents said they regularly watched Dynamite as those who said they watched Raw or Smackdown. That’s certainly not reflected in TV viewership. Raw and Smackdown each double or triple Dynamite in weekly viewers.
At least among this sample (which again, I went to some effort to try to get out of an echo chamber by reaching unacquainted respondents through paid advertising), the greatest enthusiasm was for AEW. Still, the majority of current WWE viewers were supportive of their shows too.
The fewest “promoters” (those who rated ‘5’) were among viewers of Impact and Ring of Honor. And while New Japan viewers were 43% “promoters”, there were more ‘0’ responses among those viewers than that of any other program.
I’m glad to have been able to put monetary support from our Wrestlenomics patrons to use to accomplish this research. I hope to repeat this survey periodically, so we can study how any of the results change over time.
Brandon Thurston has written about wrestling business since 2015. He’s also worked as an independent wrestler and trainer.
This article is available ad-free for everyone because of support from our subscribers.
World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE: WWE) shares remain under $50 following the company’s recent earnings report, on February 4. WWE set its annual net income record in 2020, but fourth quarter earnings were underwhelming relative to analyst expectations, in part due to costs related to the Thunderdome production set.
WWE employees learned on Friday that raises and promotions have been put on hold. The move will aid profitability and possibly the stock price.
Revenues for the fourth quarter were only slightly off from expectations, but earnings per share (an expression of profitability) was 20% lower than analysts estimates. WWE reported an EPS of 24 cents for the quarter when the average analyst was expecting 30 cents.
Shares climbed following the third-quarter earnings report in late October. The stock went as high as $57 after the announcement of the company’s new agreement to sell U.S. rights to WWE Network content for exclusive distribution through NBCUniversal’s Peacock streaming service.
The Peacock deal is reportedly worth more than $1 billion over five years. That puts the deal on par with the average annual value of WWE’s current payments from Fox for the rights to two-hour flagship program Smackdown, and just below the value of three-hour flagship Raw.
Several stock analysts who cover WWE upgraded their price targets in recent weeks. The average target is currently at $60, according to TipRanks. Shares closed today at $46.50.
The decision to put raises and promotions on hold was originally reported by PWInsider last week.
Furloughs and lay-offs implemented in the spring, along with other cost reductions allowed WWE to report the Covid pandemic had a “net neutral impact” on the company’s adjusted OIBDA (a measure of profit) in 2020.
Multiple employees we’ve been in contact with say morale has suffered because of the decision to freeze raises and promotions. After helping the company succeed financially through the pandemic, taking on additional work related to furloughs, and helping achieve WWE’s most profitable year, workers were hoping to be rewarded for their effort.
Company executives did not announce the decision in a company-wide meeting, which added to the frustration for some. News of the freeze was communicated to employees by managers on Friday.
WWE media relations did not respond to a request for comment.
According to WWE’s annual report published this month, the company currently employs more than 900 full-time employees. That count does not include nearly 300 wrestlers and on-screen talent who are independent contractors, nor does it include other contract personnel. WWE is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, and has regional offices throughout the world.
February 18, 2021 UPDATE:
WWE employees have been given a stock award valued at $3,000, according multiple sources in the company. Not every employee received the award but a large number. The stock units vest next month.
Employees learned on Friday that salary raises and promotions were put on hold.
In the quest for more valuable business partnerships, it’s easy to lose sight of consumers — in this case wrestling fans — who are the foundation of a business. That’s especially so when it’s fans you’ve always had and the approval of prestigious businesses that long eluded you. And it’s more especially so when the growing majority of your total revenue comes not out of the wallets of average people but from contractual payments that are the result of those finally-captured corporate relationships.
WWE has done a lot to improve its image and monetization with other businesses in recent years. WWE for the last 20 years or so (yes, arguably earlier) has frantically tried to escape the fact that it’s a professional wrestling company. Being a mere professional wrestling company, the belief seems to be, kept them out of a lot of valuable business partnerships, left them with weaker access to valuable advertisers and sponsors.
You don’t often hear the word “wrestling” in WWE programming, even though the word is in the name of the company. You more often hear the initials of the trade name and you more often hear WWE’s athletes — don’t call them “wrestlers” — called competitors, performers, or superstars. These competitors are engaged in “sports entertainment”, seldom “wrestling”. WWE doesn’t have wrestling fans, they have the WWE Universe. The corporate website tells you the business is an integrated media organization. The word “wrestling” does not appear.
Here Stephanie McMahon explains the etymology:
Vince McMahon is constantly reimagining WWE. It’s how he was able to take a regional business in the 1970s and turn it into a global media powerhouse known from every street corner in the United States to favelas in Brazil to high rises in Shanghai and everywhere in between through digital and social media. He started with the brand. Before anything else, Vince wanted to upgrade the image of what was known as professional wrestling. He was able to stand in the back of a smoke-filled armory, watching hundreds of people shout at the performers in the ring and re-imagine the future. … But advertisers [in the 1980s] either had an adverse reaction to the words “professional wrestling” or they simply didn’t understand what it was. So how could we create a term or a label that potential partners could understand? How could we describe that the WWE was based on larger-than-life characters enthralled in a relatable storylines? That is when we coined the term, “sports entertainment”.
WWE has succeeded in presenting its product to potential business partners as something more digestible than the stereotype of professional wrestling that many may have in mind. You can go to community.wwe.com and see the company’s philanthropy and community outreach programs. In 2015, WWE and NBCUniversal together produced “The Hero in All of Us” campaign ahead of network upfronts that year, a campaign directed not at fans but at advertisers and business partners, intended to improve the image of the company, to show them that WWE wasn’t a caricature of phony violence, but that it’s something magical that provides memorable experiences and attracts people from all different age groups and backgrounds. It “puts smiles on people’s faces”.
While WWE has improved its brand perception among business partners, it hasn’t taken care of its brand perception among fans. Acceptance among business partners may have soared, but the company’s relationship with many would-be fans is increasingly contentious or apathetic.
For a long time in wrestling punditry, maybe inside the industry as well, a common distinction used to talk about the fan base is to separate hardcore fans and casual fans. But I think that hardcore-and-casual distinction is no longer as relevant as a different distinction, which is WWE fans and other wrestling fans. That is, fans who are primarily WWE fans and wrestling fans who are not necessarily primarily WWE fans.
There’s a core of WWE fans we might call (to adopt the company’s branded phrase) “WWE Universe fans”, for whom WWE is the be-all end-all of wrestling. And those fans are a large portion of the people who are watching WWE on television. This is the large portion of people who are consuming WWE media, merchandise, and (eventually again someday) live events. Those fans aren’t really engaging with or may not be highly aware of other brands of wrestling.
And then there’s the other core of fans, who are passionate about wrestling in a more general way, who are less satisfied in and excited about the WWE product. And that group of fans engage more with other non-WWE wrestling brands. The former “WWE Universe” group may well be larger, but the latter group has grown among the total denominator of wrestling fans.
Over time that’s evident from the emergence of other wrestling brands in the U.S. in the last five years or so: whether that’s the increase in business at least for a time for Ring of Honor, for New Japan Pro Wrestling in the US, and finally for the launch of All Elite Wrestling in 2019. In fairness, WWE has made an effort at trying to capture the different tastes of that latter group through its NXT brand.
Nonetheless, WWE has a young adult viewer problem. Viewers aged 18 to 34 fled from Raw and NXT at the beginning of the pandemic and have yet to return.
Source: Nielsen, Showbuzzdaily. WWE NXT data for January 2021 unavailable.
The net promoter score study that I did from late December 2020 to early January 2021 (with an effort to collect random samples through advertising, rather than collecting samples through organic social media sharing), showed young adult fans between 18 and 49 were somewhat less likely to recommend Raw, Smackdown, or NXT, compared to people who responded to the survey who were either over the age of 50 or under the age of 18. AEW Dynamite, however, showed an inverse of that pattern among people aged 18 to 49, who were more likely than their younger or older fellow wrestling fans to recommend Dynamite to a friend. There’s a similar pattern with other non-WWE wrestling brands, Impact Wrestling, Ring of Honor, and New Japan Pro Wrestling.
Source: Wrestlenomics survey (n=502)
That said, WWE’s net promoter score remains positive. AEW’s score is higher, but there’s clearly still a large population of fans who approve of WWE and are not about to tune out and disengage.
And WWE has enormous name ID, too. Google web searches for WWE on a worldwide basis is eight times greater than that of AEW, and is about six times greater in the U.S. Other non-WWE wrestling brands are microscopic by comparison.
WWE maintains tremendous name recognition, has strong corporate leadership and media strategy. The company has new key executives who are well-equipped to maximize revenues in the future. But WWE would have a greater revenue potential if it had a strong core product to sell, which it does not, and which the company shows no sign of being able to reckon with.
We don’t believe that we’ve lost eyeballs. We believe eyeballs tend to shift from linear to digital platforms. So if you look at even our Facebook numbers, which are significantly up the last six months or so, including the revenue against those numbers, we think the eyeballs are there. Like I said, we’re always looking to grow ratings. So now that we’re coming out of a competitive presidential race that a lot of people were focused on. We’re still all in the midst of a virus that a lot of people are focused on. We believe with the continued great in-ring product that the eyeballs are continuing to grow and will result in more linear eyeballs as some of the other stuff that I just mentioned passes. So we feel good about our position, and we think our network partners do as well.
Annual declines in consumption began about five years ago, unraveling in a variety of areas, including ticket sales and merchandise sales (those obviously not comparable in 2020 because of the pandemic). While streaming subscriptions grow throughout the media industry, WWE Network subscribers are still below the level of 2018 despite growing in 2020. And Google web search has fallen precipitously since 2016.
Sources: SEC filings, Nielsen/Showbuzzdaily, Google Trends
Stephanie McMahon mentioned in the earnings call on Thursday that Vince McMahon taught her that you should always be ahead of the curve, and that’s why WWE is pivoting from its direct-to-consumer streaming service to selling its streaming rights to NBCUniversal. The need to sell those streaming rights might not be the more profitable choice if WWE had a stronger core product which attracted more customers, and that might have brought in subscribers closer to the three or four million that were originally projected. Nonetheless, even if WWE could never reach those lofty goals, the WWE Network would be even more valuable to sell to a licensee if WWE was more popular and if the content was consumed more avidly across a greater number of fans — a notion the company, at least publicly, all but says isn’t possible.
In many ways, WWE has been ahead of the curve in terms of its media strategy. Throughout the decades WWE moved from closed-circuit to pay-per-view, from syndicated television to cable, from pay-per-view to streaming. But its content is anything but ahead of the curve. Trends among younger aged adults in particular should be a warning.
WWE is a classic case of overbranding. Ubiquitous logos, chosen nicknames, and stilted corporate euphemisms may attract partners in the short-term but they overwhelm and repulse the audience in the long-term. Executives have succeeded in their mission to transform the company’s image with businesses, but the pedal-to-the-meddle branding, which permeates virtually every frame of the core content, is one among a myriad of contributing factors disabling authentic star development and, thereby, popularity with consumers.
Creative has chronic difficulty developing stars to their potential and relies increasingly on the return of aging stars from a more popular era, many of whom don’t work a full year-round schedule. Poor creative execution will continue indefinitely under the creative leadership of Vince McMahon, and as long as it does, expect WWE to continue to shed viewers and consumers over time, especially younger people. Not that WWE’s business is going to be drastically negatively impacted next week, next month, or next year, but the virtual monopoly WWE once had on the wrestling industry will continue to erode.
Maybe that’s good for fans, those who are left anyway. In the big financial picture for WWE, it’s not as if in the coming years there’s going to be any economic signal that will intensely pressure WWE to take a serious look at the quality of its content. If anything, in the years to come, even more of WWE’s revenue will come from business partners rather than from wrestling fans. Peacock picking up U.S. rights to WWE Network content deepens this dynamic.
In 2020, an exceptional year because of the pandemic but not much different than in future years, WWE made just over half of its revenue from TV rights fees. Those payments are not dependent on the particular performance of viewership. Just ten years ago the company made as much as 78% of its revenue directly from consumers, in the form of pay-per-view buys (or even Network subscriptions later on), ticket sales, and various kinds of merchandise sales. But increasingly over time and increasingly in the future, WWE will get a greater majority of its revenue from business partners, whether that’s from television broadcasters, advertisers and sponsors, WWE Network licensing fees (the upcoming Peacock deal), or from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Source: SEC filings, Wrestlenomics definitions of “DTC” and “B2B”
In 2020, 70% of WWE’s revenue came from business partners. Only 30% was generated directly from wrestling fans. In the next few years to come, I estimated that WWE will make as much as 80% of its revenue from business partners as guaranteed and often escalating fees with media partners like NBCUniversal, Fox, Sony, BT Sport, and the KSA continue to contribute to a growing majority of the company’s business — further insulating, perhaps, the chief decision maker from the sentiments of wrestling fans who ultimately are the foundation of the pro wrestling business.
I don’t see much changing in the years to come, but on a long enough timeline, the company maintaining the current quality of creative probably isn’t tenable if alternative wrestling brands grow in popularity.
How long can WWE rely on its legacy intellectual property of stars from the past and float on lucrative business relationships without creating fresh, younger stars who can attract younger viewers? How long is it sustainable for? Probably a long time. We may find out. Not any time soon, but in the decade to come.
Brandon Thurston has written about wrestling business since 2015. He’s also worked as an independent wrestler and trainer.
This article is available ad-free for everyone because of support from our subscribers.
WWE today records its highest annual net income in history, adjusted for inflation.
WWE records its highest annual revenue ever, adjusted for inflation, just short of $1 billion.
If operating income (before taxes and other adjustments) is your preferred profit metric, we don’t have as deep records on that but WWE appears to have shattered that record as well in 2020.
WWE had a strong year for online merch in 2020, generating $41 million, the most ever in a year. This somewhat offset the lack of venue merch sales since March. Orders were up from the prior year and the average revenue per order was the highest in at least 13 years, at $56.72.
There isn’t a ton of new information in the earnings release on outlook since WWE gave guidance last week when it announced the Peacock deal. WWE projects adjusted OIBDA (their preferred non-GAAP profit measure) for 2021 that’s within the range of what’s recorded for 2020.
As we wait for Vince McMahon, Nick Khan, Kristina Salen, and Stephanie McMahon to begin the conference call.
WWE was low on profitability in Q4 relative to analyst expectations. Not to an alarming degree, but the stock is adjusting down 4% currently in after hours trading.
Conference call on http://corporate.wwe.com finally beings. Sounds like we join in progress and there may’ve been issues with the audio stream. WWE president Nick Khan is talking, putting over the Superstar Spectacle and now Bad Bunny’s appearance at Royal Rumble.
Normally Vince opens the call. Sounds like we might’ve missed that on the corporate site web stream.
Khan talks about WWE targeting LATAM and India regions. In China, WWE launch on Tencent video.
You will see WWE championship belts using team logos.
He hands over to Stephanie.
I will now try to summarize and/or quote WWE execs. These may in some cases be paraphrases. Stephanie narrates WWE Network history and the next steps with licensing to Peacock.
Steph puts over talent appearing outside content, celebrities appearing inside. Matthew McConaughey. Yes Steph does mention Sasha Banks on Mandalorian. Rey Mysterio wearing the Victoria brand on his mask and posted on social media to his followers in Spanish how proud he was.
WWE CFO Kristina Salen begins. She reviews WWE’s record revenue and record profit. “Large-scale international event” is code of Saudi events.
Salen says Thunderdome increase production costs by approximately 25% per episode. Unclear if that’s relative to PC production or pre-Covid production costs.
Salen mentions Wrestlemania but urges WWE doesn’t anticipate the return to ticket live events until at least the second half of 2021.
Salen says sales for championship belts grew more than 100% in 2020. Seems this is likely a big part of what’s driving the increase in revenue per eCommerce order.
Salen notes 2022 and future years will be impact by variety of factors. Contractual escalation of core content rights fees will drive growth. Other factors may temper growth. We expect highest incremental impact of Peacock in 2021.
TV production costs after Covid may be lower than Thunderdome, but higher than 2019 due to Monday to Friday TV production.
Will want to carefully relisten to this guidance later.
This ends prepared remarks. Q&A begins!
Paraphrasing!
Q: More color on costs for Peacock deal? One-time migration expenses?
Salen: Migration costs in Q1, embedded in guidance already. Tech infrastructure savings will be offset “by investing in systems that are long overdue.”
Q: On revenue side of Peacock deal. Any offsets there besides subscriber revenue going away? Stephanie, sponsorship opportunity following deal going to NBCU?
Steph: We can comment on specific deal terms but NBCU is industry leader in sales & spons space.
Salen: Revenue impact is embedded in guidance. And no other offsets besides subscription revenue.
Q: Is there ability to move higher profile content off PPVs and into Raw to bring Raw ratings up?
Khan takes Q, not Vince. Khan seems to tactfully answer no, focusing on Peacock.
Laura Martin of Needham tries to ask Vince a question. Nick takes this one too. It doesn’t seem Vince is in the room.
Khan says international plan just getting started, a lot of room for growth. Stephanie took over sales and sponsorship area. With NBCU partnership you’ll see more ad/spons opportunities. Championship belt deal “with just one of the major sports leagues”, doesn’t say which.
Q: What’s WWE doing to drive viewers back to Raw and Smackdown?
Khan: We don’t believe we’ve lost eyeballs. We believe eyeballs shift from linear to digital. Now that we’re out of presidential race, virus still focused on. With great in-ring product, there’ll be growth.
Q: Is the rest of media industry move to off load rights to bigger platforms? What’s given up by leaving DTC? Data?
Khan says to look for WWE events to big piggyback onto NBC events.
Salen assures there is no upcharge around special content (PPVs) so there won’t be volatility.
Q: How will NBCU evaluate success of WWE content on Peacock? Sub adds, ad sales?
Khan explains the three Rs: ratings, relevancy, and revenue. Ratings based on subs. Relevancy, as excited as they are about it. And revenue it’s an opportunity for them to sell against it.
Khan: “We think it has no impact on us, the departure of NBC Sports Network… There’ll be no affect on Raw or NXT.”
Very direct answer that seems to say Raw and more interestingly NXT won’t be affected by NBC Sports Network content potentially moving to USA Network.
Q: Can you help us understand profitability of Saudi events?
Salen says looking at Q4 2020 should give you an idea of the absence of a KSA event has.
Q: Do both KSA events in a given year have same profitability?
Salen: Talking about live events is hyper theoretical right now.
WWE is expected to report 2020 was the company’s most profitable year ever tomorrow (Thursday). Fourth quarter and therefore full-year 2020 results will be reported just after the market closes.
Below we’ll look at some questions that might be (and some that almost certainly some won’t be) discussed during the call. The Q&A session in which stock analysts get to ask questions to WWE executives is of particular interest here.
I’ll be covering the report and earnings call as it happens, on Twitter (@BrandonThurston) and here on wrestlenomics.com.
WWE officers scheduled to be on the call are the same as the Q3 call in October: WWE chairman and CEO Vince McMahon, president and chief revenue officer Nick Khan, chief financial officer Kristina Salen, and chief brand officer Stephanie McMahon. As always, anyone can listen to the conference call live on corporate.wwe.com at 5:00pm ET.
If you’re reading this, you probably know who Vince and Stephanie are. Khan and Salen are relatively new to WWE. They were hired by the company in 2020. Both started around August of last year. When he was with CAA (Creative Artists Agency) Khan negotiated WWE’s current U.S. television deals with NBCUniversal and Fox. Salen is a former CFO at Etsy and Moda Operandi.
The new deal with Peacock, granting the NBCU streaming service U.S. rights to all WWE Network content is Khan’s first major deal as WWE president. Expect information about the Peacock deal to be a frequent topic of conversation on the conference call.
1. Future of the WWE Network on Peacock
How does the Peacock deal affect WWE’s expenses? Does the Peacock deal entail employee reductions? Are there commitments to data that WWE (including employee positions) no longer needs to invest in? Are there other expenses NBCU will absorb? Will Endeavor continue to provide CDN for WWE Network?
What are some key lessons the company learned from the seven-year WWE Network project? It may have been a challenge for a company that has a long history of producing content to tackle a tech-heavy project like this. How much of a factor does WWE feel that was in the Network not driving more revenue on a purely direct-to-consumer model in the U.S.?
How seriously was selling select events like Wrestlemania as a standalone pay-per-view event (like ESPN+ does with UFC) considered? Wrestlemania is clearly included in Peacock Premium this year. Is that something that’s off the table now?
Other than the reported $1 billion in fees over five years, how does the deal affect WWE’s revenues? What does the deal mean for WWE’s media advertising and sponsorship revenues? Does NBCU now get a portion of revenues from WWE’s major advertisers like Snickers’ official sponsorship of Wrestlemania?
There’s a vast library of content currently available on the WWE Network. Should subscribers expect that 100% of the content they had access to on the WWE Network will be available on Peacock Premium?
Are there incentives in place encouraging WWE to produce monthly pay-per-view events that drive people to subscribe to Peacock? The new deal with Peacock has a five-year term, so there is the incentive that WWE wants its content to perform well so that there’s a better deal waiting at the end of this one. That’s a kind of incentive. But is any part of WWE’s compensation based on performance? Are there an incentives based on subscriber activity or viewership on Peacock?
2. Does the Peacock deal bring WWE closer to being acquired by NBCU/Comcast?
There will be no straight answers here, but NBCU now owns U.S. rights to Raw and the Network content, paying WWE somewhere around $465 million annually ($265 million for Raw and $200 million for Network content). Over the course of both of those agreements, NBCU will have paid WWE more than $2 billion, nearly half the market capital of WWE. Does the latest deal get NBCUniversal closer to acquisition? Is acquisition on the table when Raw rights are renegotiated, likely beginning some time next year? This might be a question for Comcast’s (NBCU’s parent) executives as well.
3. How does WWE see NBCU folding NBC Sports and moving sports content to USA Network (and other NBCU platforms) affecting WWE content? NXT in particular.
It likely is, but can investors have some reassurance Raw is safe Monday nights in primetime? Will there be an preemptions of Raw in the future due to sports programming?
Are there cross-promotional opportunities between WWE and other sports programming? Granted, WWE’s matches are predetermined, but with USA Network taking on more sports content, is there any consideration into categorizing Raw and NXT as sports like how Fox categorizes Smackdown and how TNT categorizes AEW?
NXT is currently on Wednesday nights where it runs head-to-head with AEW Dynamite. It seems possible if NBCU retains NHL rights that hockey could take precedent on Wednesday nights on USA. NXT hasn’t beaten AEW in viewership in months and hasn’t led with viewers 18-49 in more than a year. Is it better for building the NXT brand to move the program to another night? How important does the company view directly competing with AEW? Does higher viewership for AEW pose a risk to WWE’s own future media rights value?
Source: Nielsen
Is there any update the company can give on NXT negotiations? Will the company publicly confirm the NXT deal with NBCU expires in the fall? Under prior management, WWE stated part of the reason for moving NXT off of the WWE Network and on to linear TV was to grow media rights value of a third weekly brand. Two years later, does the company feel that’s been a success? Furthermore, is Peacock a possible future home for NXT?
The former IFC executive joins WWE, where she’ll work with Bruce Prichard. The press release states Lubrano will work under EVP of operations Brad Blum, but it sounds like Lubrano and Prichard are now the key people on the creative team under Vince. What skills does Lubrano bring that will be especially additive to WWE’s programming? WWE’s talent roster of women and obviously the company’s focus on female talent as serious athletes have grown tremendously in recent years. What percentage of the company’s creative team are women?
5. What’s the company’s latest analysis of Raw and Smackdown ratings? Why are AEW and NXT not seeing similar trends?
Source: Nielsen
Raw and Smackdown have stabilized since the addition of the Thunderdome. Both programs are actually seeing an upward trend in recent weeks. Raw is boosted by lack of competition from the NFL since its season recently ended. Both programs still are not back to where they were before the pandemic, while NXT and AEW held up more consistently since full live audiences were restricted.
This is especially noticeable in trends among younger viewers like those in the 18-34 category. In fact, the majority of viewers for WWE’s programs are 50 or older. It seems wrestlers, too, (at least those on flagships Raw and Smackdown) on average are getting older. What’s WWE doing to address this?
6. Why was it important to announce locations for Wrestlemania this far in advance? Will Wrestlemania be a two-day event going forward?
WWE usually doesn’t announce the Wrestlemania location for the event two years ahead. Was this simply due to the Tampa postponement reordering the schedule? Or were there other factors?
Wrestlemania events for 2022 and 2023 are referred to in the press release as one day only, yet this year’s event and last year’s are two-day events. Is the company considering making this a permanent feature going forward? Might that be the best way to monetize the company’s peak annual event? Seems there would be further opportunity to generate ticket and merchandise revenue, and the company has a growing roster of talent. One-day Wrestlemania events in previous years were several hours long.
7. Is WWE trying to integrate talent and advertisers?
WWE recently aired its “Superstar Spectacle” event aimed at India. Are there more localized programs like this in the works? Will an NXT India brand be launched in the near future? Would that mean a Performance Center would be established in the region as well? Are there other regions that are closer to being developed? How has Covid affected this strategy overall?
A docket showing WWE involved in litigation in Connecticut against the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services appeared in public legal resources recently. Does the company foresee any issues with obtaining visas for international talent? Are travel restrictions enacted by the new presidential administration seen as obstacle?
9. What are the company’s plans for the Twitch platform? Cameo?
In September WWE talent were ordered to stop using third-party video platforms like Twitch and Cameo. What opportunities does WWE see there?
10. Has WWE made any decisions about the future of live events?
In the most recent pre-Covid quarters, the live events division struggled to report positive operating income. Losses on live events were particularly evident in quarters not containing Wrestlemania. An increasing amount of WWE’s revenue is coming from media sources. What value does the company see in running house shows (non-televised events)? Is it safe to say, post-Covid, WWE will run a reduced touring schedule?
11. Are there any decisions on the stock buyback program?
WWE stated in July it was considering restarting its stock buyback program that was put on hold at the beginning of the pandemic. Shares have been climbing since the last earnings report. Many analysts have raised their stock price targets recently. It seems this is a subject CFO Kristina Salen would be the key person to hear from on.
Brandon Thurston has written about wrestling business since 2015. He’s also worked as an independent wrestler and trainer.
This article is available ad-free for everyone because of support from our subscribers.
Since 1991, the PWI 500 has ranked professional wrestlers based on activity (win-loss record, championships won, major feuds, and success against diverse competition), technical ability, and influence. A number of critiques1,2 have been raised regarding the subjective nature of PWI’s rankings including the underrepresentation of wrestlers from non-North American countries , women, LGBTQ wrestlers and wrestlers of color. Among wrestlers in the top 100 of 2020’s version of the PWI 500, only two are women and fifteen wrestlers are from Japanese promotions.
This article highlights an unbiased measure of activity by calculating Elo ratings for each of the 15,482 wrestlers who had matches in 2020. The Elo rating system, originally created to rate chess players, has been applied to board games, video games, and college athletics for playoff ranking purposes. It has even been utilized by Chris Harrington on WWE wrestlers competing from 1970 to 2012.
An overview of Elo
Elo ratings are a reflection of prior performance and also account for success (or lack thereof) against the quality of competition. For a given match, the Elo ratings of each wrestler are used to predict the outcome of the match. The Elo ratings are adjusted upward for the winner and downward for the loser to better reflect each wrestler’s “true” rating. The Elo algorithm is an example of a zero-sum game (i.e., one wrestler’s gain is equivalent to another’s loss so that the net change is zero).
Relatively speaking, the wrestler with the higher rating is expected to have a greater likelihood of winning the match. But on the occasion that a higher rated wrestler loses to a lower rated wrestler, this is an unexpected outcome and evidence that the original ratings were quite inaccurate. As a result, a greater number of rating points will be exchanged to correct that error. This correction will better reflect each wrestler’s “true” rating for future matches. If a wrestler were to only defeat low-rated wrestlers, their Elo would not increase as rapidly compared to a wrestler who competed against, and defeated, high rated wrestlers.
Methodology for 2020 Elo rankings
With this analysis, every wrestler started with an Elo rating of 1600. The K-value, which determines the exchange of rating points per match, was set at 8. Each of the 32,984 match results from 5,966 events held in 2020 was collected from cagematch.net and sequentially ran through the Elo algorithm (matches from wrestlingdata.com were also explored but contain nearly 1/3 fewer matches relative to cagematch.net). For multi-person matches, the average of the teammates’ Elo rating was used against the average of the opposing team in the algorithm. A total of 15,482 wrestlers had at least one match in 2020. A cutoff of 10 matches was used in order to be considered for the Elo 500. Wrestlers with multiple gimmicks were collapsed so that their Elo rating would accumulate based on the individual and not their unique gimmicks.
A potential limitation in utilizing the Elo algorithm to rank wrestlers is that a number of popular wrestlers had poor win-loss records. As a result, wrestlers like Hiroshi Tanahashi, EVIL, Daniel Bryan, Bayley, Sasha Banks, and Sammy Guevara do not appear in the Elo 500. Given the scripted nature of professional wrestling, this is not unexpected since there must be losers as well as winners. However, ranking wrestlers based on Elo is a reflection of accumulated success over the course of a year. By integrating additional criteria like championships won and major feuds like what is done in the PWI 500, a poor Elo rating may be ameliorated. This is an avenue to examine in the future in order to make the Elo rankings have better face validity.
The Elo 500 is not strictly a ranking of winning percentage. As can be seen from the graph below, wrestlers with a perfect record are not necessarily ranked the highest. Elo ratings are dependent on success against opponents with strong Elo ratings themselves. For instance, the one wrestler who had a sub-.500 record (Taichi from New Japan Pro Wrestling) was able to amass enough quality wins to gain a place in the Elo 500. For that reason, Elo is an improvement over just win-loss records.
Elo 500 results
Wrestlers in the Elo 500 competed in 485 different promotions throughout 2020. The vast majority (20.4%) wrestled for only one company. Warhorse competed for the greatest number of promotions, 27. Considering only a wrestler’s most frequent promotion, the greatest number of wrestlers came from All Elite Wrestling (42), WWE (41), NJPW (19), CMLL (17), DDT (17), BJW (16), Pro Wrestling NOAH (16), AJPW (15), and Dragon Gate (15).
According to Elo ratings, the top wrestler from 2020 is Drew McIntyre, the current WWE Champion, followed by Syuri, the current SWA Women’s World Champion in Stardom, and Heavy Metal, Real Canadian Wrestling’s current Canadian Heavyweight Champion. Will Ospreay, SANADA, Shingo Takagi, Jon Moxley, and Roman Reigns had the next highest Elo ratings at year’s end. Saka Akai from DDT and Tsukushi Haruka from Ice Ribbon round out the top 10. The entire Elo 500 list can be found below, including win-loss records, the most frequently wrestled-in promotion, and the number of promotions wrestled for.
One of the more interesting aspects of the Elo algorithm is that the odds of future matches can be calculated between wrestlers using the following equation:
For instance based on the 2020 Elo ratings, if former Shield teammates Jon Moxley (Elo=1770.99) and Roman Reigns (Elo=1763.82) were to have a match, the likelihood of Jon Moxley winning would be 51.03%, essentially, a toss-up. On the other hand, if Kenny Omega (Elo=1744.58) were to wrestle Kota Ibushi (Elo=1650.97), the likelihood of Kenny Omega winning would be 63.15%. Since all four have had additional matches, their overall Elo ratings would change and so would the likelihoods.
In conclusion, this analysis of 2020’s wrestling matches attempts to provide an unbiased ranking as an improvement to the PWI 500. While there are limitations inherent in utilizing Elo for such a ranking, the interpretation is straightforward and treats wrestlers evenly and fairly across all promotions without any subjective bias; the only critical factor is wins against strong competition. Much like the concept of star ratings for wrestling matches, it is hoped that this will spur interest and discussion about wrestlers from across the world.
Matthew Schroeder is a passionate wrestling fan who uses his scientific and analytic background to examine the wrestling business in unique and innovative ways.
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