AEW Elo rankings: Jan 21, 2024

• What kinds of matches are analyzed?
  • Only singles matches are considered for this analysis. That includes typical one-on-one matches, but also multi-opponent matches (three-ways, four-ways, etc). Battle royals are also counted.
  • This analysis does not count tag team matches in any form. I may create a tag team Elo analysis in the future.
  • All wrestlers begin with a 1500 Elo rating upon their first match in the Cagematch record.
  • All wrestlers’ entire singles match histories (to the extent they are recorded by Cagematch) may determine their Elo rating.
  • Elo is calculated universally. That means matches in any promotion count toward a wrestler’s rating.
• How are different match endings treated?
  • DQ and count-out wins/losses count at half the weight (0.5) of typical wins/losses.
  • Time limit draws and double pins are counted with half weight (0.5) to each wrestler.
  • Matches resulting in a double DQ, double count-out, or no-contest are essentially discarded and do not affect any participants’ Elo rating.
  • A winner of a match with multiple opponents (e.g., a three-way, four-way, battle royal) is rewarded as if they beat a wrestler with an Elo rating that is the average of the other participants in the match. Conversely, the effect of a loss in such a match is distributed evenly across the losers. This means the two losers of a three-way match are penalized half as much as they would be if they lost to the winner one-on-one. The 29 losers of a 30-person battle royal are affected one-twenty-ninth to the extent they would have been had they lost one-on-one to the battle royal winner. There are no adjustments made according to who was pinned or eliminated in any such match as Cagematch currently doesn’t consistently provide that information for matches of the relevant type.
  • Matches are not weighted with respect to promotion, event type, whether the match is a title match, or whether the match is any type of gimmick match.
• How are house shows are treated?
  • For the period beginning January 1, 1985 to the present, matches Cagematch categorizes under the event type “House shows” are excluded. Non-televised events categorized as “Event” (many independent companies’ events, for example) are included throughout the timeline. All televised matches are included: TV, PPV/PLE, Streaming, and YouTube matches.
  • For the period from January 1, 1894 through December 31, 1984, all matches in the Cagematch record are included. I arbitrarily choose 1985 as the cut-off point for house shows because it roughly marks the rise of closed circuit and pay-per-view events. This choice is intended to deal with specific facts, including
    • a) televised matches between high-profile wrestlers were less common on television in a prior era;
    • b) house show match results (especially in modern times) are often repetitive, with a face beating the same heel opponent repeatedly; and
    • c) televised matches obviously didn’t occur before the rise of television in the 1950s and many independent events aren’t televised at all, which makes focusing solely on televised events throughout the timeline undesirable.
• What are the tables categories below?
  • Wrestlers are grouped below in tables by gender and by promotion. An “Overall” categorization is shown as the first set of tables. All wrestlers with a singles match present in the Cagematch record within the last 90 days are eligible for ranking in the “Overall” table for the gender division within which they commonly compete, regardless of promotion affiliation.
  • Wrestlers whose most recent match in the given promotion (or overall) was more than 90 days ago are not included in the rankings. This is intended to focus on wrestlers who are active, excluding wrestlers who may be injured or no longer affiliated with a promotion. This also means a wrestler may appear in more than one promotion’s rankings if that wrestler had matches in more than one of the selected promotions within the last 90 days.
  • Wrestlers’ Elo ratings are formulated to decay when wrestlers are inactive. When a wrestler is inactive for more than 90 consecutive days, their rating will diminish by one point per day they are inactive over the 90-day threshold. For years before 2004, the decay rate is weighted more lightly, relative to the number of match records present for the given year, which reflects an assumption that the Cagematch record is more complete in recent years and less complete in more distant years.
• What is the actual Elo formula?
  • A typical one-on-one win/loss result affects the participants’ Elo ratings under the following formula:

Rwinner = 10winner's incoming Elo rating÷400
Rloser = 10loser's incoming Elo rating÷400
Ewinner = Rwinner ÷ (Rwinner + Rloser)
Eloser = Rloser ÷ (Rwinner + Rloser)
Elowinner = winner's incoming Elo rating + 32 × (1 - Ewinner)
Eloloser = loser's incoming Elo rating +32 × (0 - Eloser)