TV ratings: AEW Dynamite, May 10 (plus news, whether AEW-WBD deal could really be $1 billion)

On last night’s Dynamite, Tony Khan appeared onscreen and teased an upcoming announcement. “I’d like you to stay tuned to TNT next week for a huge announcement,” he said. “And please join us next Wednesday here on AEW Dynamite, where we’ll follow up on one of the most important announcements ever in the history of AEW.” The tease seems consistent with the expectation that AEW Collision will be confirmed as a new show at Warner Bros. Discovery’s upfronts next Wednesday, and the report from WONF4W yesterday that a new TV deal will also be announced that day.
Disney, like Netflix, is experiencing a deceleration in its streaming subscriber base. In its earnings report yesterday Disney reported Disney+ subscribers declined slightly from the prior quarter, both domestically and, for the second quarter in a row, worldwide. Globally subscribers for the quarter ending March 31 were at 157.8 million, down from last quarter’s 161.8 million and 164.2 million in the quarter before that. In the U.S. and Canada, Disney reported 46.3 million subscribers, down slightly from 46.6 million. Hulu and ESPN+, both U.S.-only services, continued to grow sequentially. Hulu’s subscriber count, which includes live TV subscribers as well as SVOD-only subs, is up to 48.2 million subscribers, less than 1% from the prior quarter. ESPN+ has 25.3 million subscribers, up about 2% from 24.9 million last quarter.

[ppp_patron_only level=”5″]

Yuke’s recent financial report here mentions AEW a few times. I’ve looked at a machine-translated version but would prefer if someone who can read Japanese could take a look and interpret. If you can help, email me at brandon@wrestlenomics.com.
I reformulated an estimate of what a new AEW media deal might be worth and corrected the math I referred to in last night’s podcast and on Twitter. Based on WWE’s current fees per viewer hour, I can get to a 4x increase (not a 5x) for AEW, which would bring a new AEW deal, with five hours of weekly in-ring content, to $166 million to $175 million in average annual value. It’s possible that with the addition of AEW content on Max, if that’s what’s happening, a new deal could go higher — or a deal could be valued entirely differently by WBD. My formulation is below. But to answer the question: “Is it realistic that AEW’s deal with WBD could really be worth $1 billion over five years?” Yes, it makes economic sense based on the factors I’m able to consider. Is that what the parties have agreed to or will agree to? I don’t know. I’ve asked AEW and WBD about the reports and rumors and, predictably, didn’t get a response.
Average Annual Value
Raw: $265M
Smackdown: $205M
Dynamite+Rampage: $44M
Average P18-49 2023 year-to-date average
Raw: 716k (P18-49 rating: 0.55)
Smackdown: 785k (0.60)
Dynamite: 384k (0.29)
Rampage: 167k (0.13)
Annual P18-49 viewer hours (AVH)
Raw: 716k × 3 hours weekly × 52 weeks
= 112M annual viewer hours
Smackdown: 785k × 2 hours weekly × 52 weeks
= 82M annual viewer hours
Dynamite+Rampage:
(384k × 2 hours weekly × 52 weeks)
+ (167k × 1 hour weekly × 52 weeks)
= 49M annual viewer hours
$ per viewer hour (P18-49)
Raw: $265M AAV ÷ 112M AVH = $2.37
Smackdown: $205M AAV ÷ 82M AVH = $2.50
Dynamite+Rampage: $44M AAV ÷ 49M AVH = $0.90
Estimated incremental value from AEW Collision
Average P18-49: 200k (P18-49 rating: 0.15)
Annual P18-49 viewer hours:
200k × 2 hours weekly × 52 weeks
= 21M annual viewer hours
Annual P18-49 viewer hours (AVH)
Dynamite+Rampage+Collision: 40M + 9M + 21M
= 70M annual viewer hours
Average annual value
70M annual viewer hours
× $2.37 (Raw’s $ per viewer hour)
$166M AAV (3.7x current $44M AAV)
× 5 years = $830M
70M annual viewer hours
× $2.50 (Smackdown’s $ per viewer hour)
$175M AAV (4.0x current $44M AAV)
× 5 years = $875M
+ content for Max = ?
Live events (e.g., All In)?, next-day rights?, library?, PPV…?

AEW Dynamite last night on TBS, was watched by 877,000 viewers on average, including about 417,000 aged 18 to 49, for a 0.32 P18-49 rating.

AEW All Access on TBS at 10 pm, was watched by 336,000 viewers on average, including about 157,000 aged 18 to 49, for a 0.12 P18-49 rating.

Dynamite ranked #9 in P18-49 among cable originals for the day, according to Showbuzz Daily. Including broadcast primetime, it ranked #18.

All Access ranked #21 in P18-49 among cable originals. Including broadcast primetime, it ranked #38.

This was Dynamite’s highest P18-49 viewership since March 22 and its highest total viewership since April 5. That’s despite competition from NBA playoffs, the Donald Trump town hall on CNN, NHL playoffs, and Vanderpump Rules, all of which outranked Dynamite in P18-49.

This was All Access’s highest P18-49 viewership in the 10 pm time slot.

All Access ends its season averaging 315,000 viewers and a 0.10 P18-49 rating. Power Slaps’ average in the same time slot was 295,000 and 0.09.

Compared to last week, Dynamite was up 13% in total viewership. Among viewers 18-49, viewership was up 14%.

Compared to last week, All Access was up 9% in total viewership. Among viewers 18-49, viewership was up 34%.

Viewer counts in thousands, calculated from national ratings, for this week’s episode with difference versus the median of the last 28 days in parentheses:

Dynamite:

P2+: 877 (+4%)

P18-49: 417 (+14%)

M18-49: 305 (+18%)

F18-49: 118 (+11%)

P18-34: 176 (+22%)

P35-49: 242 (+9%)

F12-34: 61 (+24%)

M12-34: 129 (+10%)

P25-54: 511 (+17%)

P50+: 409 (-7%)

All Access: