I updated my formulation of these projected final numbers since discussing them on Wrestlenomics Radio on Sunday. Many of the projections are now higher, a few are lower.
These projections are based on the number of days leading up to the event and the historical percentage of the final estimate associated with that point in time for the same event types (e.g., Collision, Dynamite, Raw, Smackdown). Going beyond what I had done on Sunday, I tested this method by comparing projections with actual final estimates for past events and found that it tends to under-project for Collision and Dynamite events. To address this, I created separate linear regression formulas for each event type to further control for differences between them. These formulas predict the degree of under- or over-estimation based on historical discrepancies between projected and final counts, and the adjustments are applied to the projections accordingly.
As always, the underlying estimates of tickets distributed are from WrestleTix. Tickets distributed include sales as well as comps.