This article was also published for Wrestlenomics subscribers. Signup now on Patreon or Substack to unlock access to paywalled and ad-free reporting and analysis on the business of pro wrestling.
Nielsen changed how it measured its data in late September. The “Big Data + Panel” methodology is meant to provide more accuracy, but AEW and WWE viewership has taken a big hit.
The four major wrestling program still on traditional television are measuring between 14% and 20% lower in the first seven weeks in which the new methodology became the primary one, as opposed to the last seven weeks of the old “panel only” format.
What lower viewership means for the businesses of WWE and AEW has been counterintuitive over the years. Despite largely declining ratings, both companies have receive strong raises in media rights fees at the same time. That’s partly because programs like Smackdown, NXT, Dynamite, and Collision are still among the most highly-viewed on their night and because those telecasts could hardly be replaced with programming that delivered comparable ratings.
The typical ranking for programs has mostly also fallen under Big Data + Panel. On top of that, while Smackdown and NXT still outpace most of the programs on their given networks, Dynamite is now performing just under some of the rerun programming that airs in primetime on TBS on nights other than Wednesday.
The Big Bang Theory regularly airs immediately before Dynamite on TBS, giving the AEW show a lead-in so strong it almost always results in the early quarter-hours being the peak of the show. But reruns of the sitcom that aired its last new episode in 2019 slot on TBS throughout the week in primetime.
Under the previous “panel-only” methodology, Dynamite regularly outperformed The Big Bang Theory in key advertising demographics. However, it no longer does so under the Big Data + Panel methodology, and it’s not just Dynamite that took a hit.
This matters because an important way that wrestling programs bring value to their networks is because they’re able to deliver an audience that other programming cannot.
The easiest way to notice that is when wrestling telecasts outdraw other programs in their viewership or certain demos thereof. Indeed, if networks were going to replace wrestling with something, they’d want to replace it with something of similar or greater value. Until now, it was easier to say Big Bang Theory — while among the most popular reruns on television — wasn’t able to regularly deliver the demo audience of Dynamite. Under the new Nielsen methodology, that’s no longer true.
Collision has also ranked lower within TNT telecasts in key demos. Collision was among the top ranking TNT telecasts in the old methodology, ranking behind the FIFA Club World Cup, NASCAR races and United States men’s soccer. However, Collision lagged further behind in the new methodology, which included the MLB Division Series, and the AEW weekly show only ranked higher than U.S. soccer’s pregame show and NHL preseason telecasts.
Smackdown still outperforms other USA Network programming, but the gap isn’t as wide in the new methodology and similar is true for NXT on CW.
Wrestlenomics is not affiliated with or license by Nielsen. All data shown is this article is sourced from Programming Insider.