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The era of Big Data + Panel is upon us.
This was expected from Nielsen’s announcement a month ago. TV ratings are being measured differently by Nielsen going forward and this will complicate comparisons we make — starting roughly now — versus TV ratings data from before now.
Up until now, generally, Nielsen TV ratings data have been measured with the panel-only methodology (sometimes called Automatic Content Measurement or ACM). That methodology will be phased out in Q4 2025 (the current quarter-year).
Nielsen is now transitioning away from panel-only and toward the new methodology called Big Data + Panel.
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What’s the difference between panel-only and Big Data + Panel?
Panel-only data has been based generally on a representative sample of households (”Nielsen households” or “panel” data) whose viewing is actually being metered. The national audience is/was then extrapolated based on that sample.
Nielsen claims Big Data + Panel will improve accuracy. The Media Rating Council has accredited the methodology, which at least means the non-profit third-party organization that’s intended for this very purpose agrees it’s a credible form of measurement.
Big Data + Panel uses massive device-level data from set-top boxes and smart TVs. Panel data is also in the new methodology to validate the big data and scale measurements.
Last week, and in every report up until this writing, we have reported panel-only data for traditional TV ratings. Starting today, I expect we’ll see primarily Big Data + Panel TV ratings.
Read our follow-up on this subject
What does this really mean for wrestling TV ratings?
This change in methodology from Nielsen almost certainly explains the discrepancies we saw last week in TV ratings reports from Programming Insider (which seems to have started reporting Big Data + Panel data last week) and others including Wrestlenomics and PWTorch.
In general under Big Data + Panel, I expected that we would see telecasts with generally higher viewership measurements. But so far, for the wrestling telecasts for which I have measurements under both methodologies, viewership is mostly lower. Still, other telecasts measure higher. It seems like telecasts that have a younger age skew, in some cases, tend to measure lower with Big Data + Panel, but it’s by no means consistent.
Here’s every telecast I have so far that we have both panel-only and Big Data + Panel, so that you can see how they measure differently. The three wrestling telecasts we have are highlighted in yellow below.
As you can see, there are some small and some big differences. Under Big Data + Panel, last week’s NXT (September 23) measured 13% lower (and 28% lower in P18-49). Last week’s Dynamite (September 24) measured 13% lower (and 20% lower in P18-49). Yet the difference was only 5% lower for Collision, and it measured one ratings point higher (0.05 instead of 0.04).
If you think this sounds chaotic, I’m with you. I expect there will be a lot of confusion and even more opportunity for selective interpretations of wrestling TV ratings. In the mean time, I’ll do my best to explain the data. I’ll be considering what changes should be made to our standardized Data Reports for each weekly WWE and AEW in-ring program, to either note the change in methodology or note the panel-only data if it’s available.
With that, I’ll get going soon on the outstanding reports for Smackdown and Collision — which will include the Big Data + Panel data.
For skeptics: Does this entail that TV ratings are meaningless?
No. While TV ratings have become harder to understand as the number of cable households has declined and entertainment options have grown, viewership — and indeed the ranking of that viewership relative to programming generally — remains perhaps the most important metric in pro wrestling economics. The size of the audiences for WWE and AEW programs — even if those audiences are smaller than in prior years — is what allows major networks to justify paying hundreds of millions of dollars a year for those telecasts in an increasingly competitive media environment.
Brandon Thurston has written about wrestling business since 2015. He operates and owns Wrestlenomics.