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Estimated WWE Monday Night Raw U.S. viewership on Netflix
Total viewers (P2+), live+same-day
The methodology for this estimate is detailed at the bottom of this article.
Our estimates suggest that WWE Monday Night Raw’s U.S. viewership on Netflix is roughly in line with what it drew on the USA Network last year. In sports media and among analysts, though, there’s some confusion about just what Raw’s audience is and just what to compare it to.
Netflix’s acquisition of rights to WWE Raw since the new year has led to a range of interpretations about the show’s performance. Some view the audience as underwhelming given Netflix’s scale. Others see Raw performing well, purportedly far more views than it did on USA Network. Some of the confusion comes from mixing global and U.S. data, some of it comes from incorrectly assuming that viewership for the heavily-promoted premiere has been the norm for subsequent episodes.
In sports media, John Ourand of Puck last week called Raw’s performance on Netflix a “painful reminder” that not all content finds a “Netflix-sized audience.” He pointed to Netflix’s global data, noting—correctly—that Raw is averaging just over 3 million global households per week, albeit through a seven-day window. Ourand wrote that that’s down from 4.9 million for the premiere. But the like-to-like comparison in this case is the 5.9 million global views that Netflix reported the premiere accumulated through seven days. 4.9 million was the live+same-day figure. In any case, one of Ourand’s takeaways was that Raw’s performance is “another data point indicating that a larger platform doesn’t automatically increase demand for a sport by an exorbitant multiple.”
If the suggestion is that Netflix is opening WWE up to a new global audience, it’s important to remember that WWE has been distributed around much of the world for decades. And there’s a good chance WWE itself lacks—let alone the rest of us in the public—all the international data that would be needed to make meaningful comparisons to WWE’s global viewership on Netflix. In many regions, for sure, Netflix was a big step up from the previous platform. And even in the U.S., moving from the USA Network—now in about 65 million households—to Netflix, with around 70 million subscribers, expands WWE’s reach.
LightShed analyst Rich Greenfield countered Ourand’s commentary, saying that Raw’s Netflix viewership is 2x what it was on the USA Network, though, not even TKO President & COO Mark Shapiro is claiming that. For the premiere that was true; not for the typical Raw on Netflix since.
WWE Monday Night Raw: U.S. household viewership, live+same-day
Shapiro said on WWE’s parent company’s Feb. 26 earnings call that Raw was up 13% compared to USA Network’s first quarter viewership last year.
WWE’s Raw is even if you take out the premiere episode… we’re up 13% from our 2024 Q1 average on USA Network. So, we’re seeing great take-up on Netflix with Raw. And at the same time, you have to believe we’re getting some sampling, so we’re getting some new audience. And when I talk about that increase in ratings, keep in mind, that’s an apples-to-apples. I mean that’s based on views. Total viewed minutes divided by run time, so [it’s] similar to Nielsen’s average audience delivery as to how they report across linear exhibitions. This is the most apples-to-apples way to compare.
Raw on Netflix isn’t a massive success, but it’s not failing either. It’s ranked well within the top 10 among all Netflix TV shows each week, in both the U.S. and worldwide.
Raw being watched by about the same number of viewers in the U.S. who were watching on cable reinforces the old wisdom that wrestling audiences are remarkably consistent; fans generally find their favorite weekly wrestling shows wherever they might be.
If there’s a lesson so far in Raw’s move from USA to Netflix, it’s that Netflix—despite its growing household reach—is, for now, only about as strong as cable for live viewing. And it’s definitely not broadcast. Netflix hasn’t put up broadcast-like numbers for its NFL telecasts, and when Smackdown moved from cable to Fox—and more recently back to cable—it was clear how much a strong broadcast network can make a difference. Smackdown on Fox toward the end averaged about 2.2 million viewers; on USA it’s been averaging between 1.5 million. Even NXT is still growing year-over-year after moving to a lower-profile broadcast network, CW.
How the estimate at the top of this article was calculated
Brandon Thurston has written about wrestling business since 2015. He operates and owns Wrestlenomics.
