Less than two months in, it’s already apparent Vince McMahon’s exit is good for WWE’s TV ratings and ticket sales, not to mention any affect his scandals may have been having on business partnerships.
That flies in the face of WWE’s risk factors listed for years in filings, warning investors of adverse results if Vince McMahon ever left the company or became incapacitated. Not to mention sycophantic press the company cultivated that fed and continues to feed, despite sexual misconduct allegations, the cult of personality surrounding him.
The moment without Vince is here. Paul Levesque is now overseeing creative. Attendances for Raw and Smackdown are up. Ratings for Raw are up. Smackdown ratings are stable. NXT ratings are up.
The following compares the 48 days since Vince McMahon left the company versus his last 48 days while he was head of creative.
Why are Raw and even NXT responding well, but Smackdown isn’t? One plausible theory is that Raw is the likelier target for more formerly-disengaged viewers because it airs on Monday rather than a busier Friday night, and Raw has a longer legacy name brand.
Tickets distributed, according to WrestleTix, for Raw TV events are averaging 9,100 so far in Q3, which is higher than last year’s Q3 (7,959) which benefited from the company’s return to touring.
Smackdown is averaging 8,654 in Q3-to-date, slightly under last year’s measure (9,309).
For both Raw and Smackdown, Q3 is averaging decisively better than the trailing three quarters.
Ticket sales for Survivor Series in Boston this November sold-out immediately after tickets were put on sale to the general public.
Why is this happening? Audiences like the product better since Vince left.
Raw and Smackdown programs have been better received over this period. Cagematch.net gives a small sample (averaging 57 voters per event) but the largest one for something like this that I’m aware of. Most episodes of Raw and Smackdown since Vince’s resignation have been rated higher than most episodes in his last months in power.
Furthermore, the Clash at the Castle premium live event is currently rated 8.25 on Cagematch.net, making it the best-received PPV/PLE on the website for WWE since 2015.
Not everyone is convinced WWE has genuinely improved. At least anecdotally, there’s a core of fans whose trust was repeatedly broken by WWE who are still skeptical that much has changed about the programming. That profile is probably a hardcore AEW fan. Maybe these types of fans can be won over somewhat if WWE product continues to prove itself. Meanwhile, star power and morale at AEW, WWE’s strongest competitor, are in disrepair after a legit physical fight among the company’s top stars early Monday.
WWE’s stock price has slightly declined since the middle of August, I would speculate, as the market gradually realizes the company isn’t going to be sold any time soon. I think an appropriate twelve-month price target is about $75 (or about $7 higher than its trading at the time of this writing on Thursday afternoon), based on an updated financial estimate I’ll post soon.
As a policy, I do not currently hold and have no plans to take positions in WWE (NYSE: WWE) shares.
Brandon Thurston
brandon@wrestlenomics.com