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Yesterday was the two-year mark since Vince McMahon “retired” from WWE, in the first of his two resignations following the publishing of details of alleged sexual misconduct.
With enough time behind us now, the data definitively shows that WWE’s TV ratings, attendance, and even critical reception of events have all significantly increased since McMahon became less involved in the company’s creative process.
Enormous escalating guaranteed TV rights payments cause revenue, while a sign of financial success, to be a misleading indicator of fan popularity. So instead we’ll focus here on TV ratings and attendance.
The pandemic, which limited live events and hindered TV ratings in 2020 and 2021, also complicates this analysis, but actually here arguably benefits McMahon’s case. His last twelve months as undisputed head of creative were the first twelve months that WWE went back on the road, coming out of Covid-19 restrictions. Therefore, in theory, McMahon’s last twelve months were helped by “pent-up” demand as fans were able to attend events again beginning in July 2021, for the first time since March 2020. Additionally, we get to analyze TV ratings for McMahon’s last twelve months as CEO and head of creative while there are fans back in attendance, rather than the no-fans or Thunderdome environment that impacted TV ratings. Another advantage for McMahon in this comparison, there are more traditional TV homes further back in time as opposed to the present.
There are many ways to slice time for this analysis, and this format seems as good as any: We’ll define the “Vince” period as Jul. 16, 2021, to Jul. 22, 2022. That begins with the first day back on tour and ends on the day McMahon resigned from all roles at WWE. Paul Levesque has since led creative. Of course, McMahon’s influence lives on intentionally or not in WWE and wrestling companies throughout the world. And we should acknowledge that McMahon still directly influenced the content after Jul. 22, 2022, at least until January 2024 (his second resignation). But there’s little controversy in saying that starting in July 2022, his direct involvement was less than at any point since he took over the company from his father in the early 1980s.
We’ll define the “post-Vince” period as Jul. 23, 2022, to Jul. 21, 2024: the day after McMahon’s first resignation, through the day of the latest TV ratings data available as of this writing.
Despite the decline in traditional TV homes in the period after McMahon’s first resignation, viewership within the key ad demographic of viewers aged 18 to 49 is up for each of Smackdown, Raw, and NXT.
The difference in total viewership is less of a contrast. Still, Smackdown is up 6%, NXT is up 5%, and Raw is down just 1%. It’s worth noting that since Q2 2022, cable households have fallen by at least 12%, according to LRG Research.
Unencumbered by changes in the media industry, attendance tells another, probably clearer story. Estimates of tickets distributed, according to WrestleTix, are up across WWE’s three most frequent event categories. Smackdown is up 36%. Raw is up 40%. And house shows are up 11%.
Can we say these improvements are actually due to the quality of the content? Critical acclaim doesn’t always align with economic success. Then, again sometimes it does. At least among the voters of Cagematch.net, they’re enjoying the TV programs more than before. Average event ratings for Raw and Smackdown are both up by 25% and NXT is up 17%.
How did these increases progress over time? Did McMahon’s return to the WWE Board of Directors on Jan. 5, 2023, affect these metrics? He reportedly became involved enough in creative again in 2023 that sat at his old spot in production on the Raw after Wrestlemania that year. What about after the September 2023 TKO merger, after Ari Emanuel reportedly directed McMahon to focus on media deals and not creative? What about after he resigned from all roles at TKO on Jan. 26, 2024? I don’t see clear answers to those specific questions, but here’s how the metrics above trended over time.
While it’s true WWE’s revenue climbed annually every year since 2009, we can go back before 2021 and observe business trends tied closely to fan activity were on the decline before the pandemic.
By way of WWE’s own filings at the time, not only was television viewership down, surely, against the headwind of declining cable coverage, but ticket sales fell from 2016 to 2019 (average attendance first, then total). Merchandise, both online and at venues, fell from 2017 to 2019. Licensing revenue fell from 2017 to 2019. The WWE Network stalled after 2018, with an annual average subscriber count of 1.65 million, when executives had hoped for 3 million to 4 million.
These results run contrary to the risk factor that was for years listed in WWE’s filings, that the absence of McMahon’s creative services could hurt the company.
Filings stated as late as 2022 that “[t]he unexpected loss of the services of Vincent K. McMahon could adversely affect our ability to create popular characters and creative storylines or could otherwise adversely affect our operating results.”
“In addition to serving as Chairman of our Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. McMahon leads the creative team that develops the storylines and the characters for our programming (including our television, WWE Network and other programming) and live events,” WWE routinely disclosed to investor, among numerous other risk factors that could impact business. “The loss of Mr. McMahon due to unexpected retirement, disability, death or other unexpected termination for any reason could have a material adverse effect on our ability to create popular characters and creative storylines or could otherwise adversely affect our operating results.”
For disclosure of potential confirmation bias: I often argued before and after McMahon’s resignations that WWE’s business, while exhibiting strong financial growth thanks to the media rights environment and sufficiently highly-ranked programming, was nonetheless limited by weaknesses in the content that McMahon was responsible for.