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The premiere episode of WWE Raw on Netflix was slotted at #4 for the week, according to Netflix’s weekly top 10 that ranks its most-watched shows from Monday through Sunday.
Raw had 5.9 million “views” through the seven-day period, which is kind of like a worldwide DVR+7 measurement. “Views” is basically the number of viewers, averaged by the minute, as it’s the total number of hours viewed divided by the duration. In Nielsen terms, that’s basically the average minute audience (AMA) measurement of viewers that we’re familiar with.
As reported last week, in the U.S., the show averaged 2.6 million accounts, live+same-day, according to third-party analytics firm VideoAmp, which is comparable to the 1.22 million households that Nielsen measured watched Raw on average on the USA Network throughout 2024.
Netflix shows weekly rankings for the U.S. and all regions but doesn’t reveal the viewership data like it does for the global list. In the U.S., Raw ranked #5 for the week.
Globally, live and through the first day, it averaged a total of 4.9 million, according to Netflix’s first-party data. So the full week tacked on an extra 1 million accounts globally.
We don’t have data yet on this past Monday, January 13, but expect that viewership will be substantially down from the heavily-hyped premiere.
Brandon Thurston has written about wrestling business since 2015. He operates and owns Wrestlenomics.
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WWE and TNA announced a multi-year partnership on Thursday, though it’s unclear what this entails other than a formalization of the talent exchange that has been happening for many months.
The companies announced NXT and TNA talent will continue appearing on each other’s programming. Notably, as it has been all along, the announcement focuses on TNA interacting with NXT, not WWE’s main roster.
Analysis: The partnership is another indicator of WWE’s post-Vince McMahon approach to other wrestling companies and talent development.
I believe WWE is partly motivated by mitigating antitrust risk, which is probably of serious concern to TKO, given the settlement in late 2023 of MLW’s antitrust lawsuit against WWE, and UFC’s antitrust lawsuits. By showing WWE is open to working with other players in the wrestling industry which it doesn’t control, WWE can appear less monopolistic in the eyes of regulators and reduce the viability of another antitrust lawsuit like MLW’s.
TNA is the #3 wrestling company in the U.S. and makes a useful partner — small enough to be less of a threat than AEW, but significant enough to provide WWE with plenty of value at least when it comes to talent exchanges.
TNA, as well as WWE’s for-now less formal relationship with NOAH in Japan, provide developing or barely-used talent a much-needed opportunity to get wrestling experience outside of WWE. More than 12 years into the existence of the Performance Center and WWE has struggled to produce valuable stars who had little or no prior wrestling experience before coming to WWE. Whether that’s because of a closed-minded philosophy within WWE about the craft or something more systemic to the PC, allowing developing wrestlers to work in a variety of settings and styles is a strategy with a proven track record throughout the entire history of professional wrestling.
For TNA, the partnership elevates its profile, at least in the short-term. TNA should be mindful of the lessons of the 1980s when the WWF established partnerships with various territories before expanding outside the Northeast, and, more recently, the lessons that can be taken from WWE’s relationships with UK indies like Progress and ICW, which have seen better days, not entirely but partly due to WWE draining those scenes of talent. One can easily imagine a scenario in which TNA talent, like perhaps Joe Hendry and Jordynne Grace soon, basically have a trial run in WWE. The wealthier, more prestigious company gets to see which talent fits best with their audience and staff and might gradually drain TNA of its most valuable wrestlers. To an extent, of course, WWE always had an ability to attract TNA’s best talent, but this relationship allows WWE to do so with more confidence about who they’re investing in. Whereas if there’s any flow of talent leaving WWE to join TNA, it will most likely be because WWE has less of a desire to retain them.
Whether this relationship is more than a talent exchange remains to be seen. WWE’s connections could help TNA secure better media deals. If it’s feasible for TNA to tape its programming at the Performance Center in Orlando, that could prove to be a significant cost savings for TNA. For now, though, TNA probably struggles to get a better deal than the one with AXS TV, which its parent company Anthem acquired mainly for the purpose of airing TNA. AXS is still in just around half of cable households, which means it’s in just a quarter to a third of all U.S. households. AXS is no longer covered by Nielsen, but the latest TV viewership numbers we knew for TNA were still just under 100,000 viewers, even during periods where TNA and NXT talent were crossing over.
It’s notable, too, that Endeavor, which has controlling ownership of TKO, has already been working with TNA as the vendor for the TNA+ streaming service. Perhaps the relationship could bring Endeavor closer to helping TNA shop its rights, if TNA doesn’t work with another talent agency like CAA.
TNA’s new deal in Canada with Sportsnet, WWE’s former home, is a step up from Anthem’s Fight Network. The premiere delivered 36,000 viewers in Canada on January 2, then 19,000 on January 9, according to POST Wrestling. For a comparison point, though, NXT averaged multiple times either of TNA’s figures on the same network, averaging about 77,000 viewers in December.
TNA was one of few non-WWE wrestling companies in the U.S. on the upswing in 2024. Its ability to draw crowds for peak events improved, even if its television viewership hasn’t. WrestleTix estimated TNA drew three crowds with over 1,000 tickets distributed in Las Vegas last year. Its ambitious Slammiversary show in July at the UBS Arena on Long Island is currently at an estimate of 1,662.
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For the sake of focusing on fan popularity and the potential audience AEW Dynamite could have captured over time, here’s the P18-49 coverage rating for AEW Dynamite from 2019 through 2024. This represents the percentage of viewers in the 18 to 49 age group living in households with the network (TNT and later TBS) who watched Dynamite.
And here’s a table representing those annual averages for each year.
Here’s a table with the annual averages for the coverage rating for the audience age 2 or older.
Here are the annual averages and totals for estimated tickets distributed from WrestleTix since 2021, as well as the count of events for each year, across each event type.
Here’s the data for new videos on YouTube views on AEW’s official channel, sourced from Wrestlenomics’ daily data collections following each video for the first seven days of its life.
Here’s data for Google web search related to the “All Elite Wrestling” topic, across major regions for AEW, including Worldwide, according to trends.google.com.
I didn’t include pay-per-view data here because I haven’t seen reports yet for Worlds End or Full Gear and, separately, it’s hard to verify that data.
Brandon Thurston has written about wrestling business since 2015. He operates and owns Wrestlenomics.
Wrestlenomics is not affiliated with or licensed by Nielsen.
WWE Raw on Netflix Mon, Jan. 6, 2025: 8:00 to 11:00 pm
Update on Thursday morning, Jan. 9
Netflix and WWE released viewership data for the premiere of Raw.
In the U.S., they revealed, Raw had 2,600,000 households viewing, live+same-day, according to third-party data provided by VideoAmp. The press release notes, and it is consistent with Nielsen data available to Wrestlenomics, that the household measurement is 116% higher than the average for Raw on the USA Network in 2024, as measured by Nielsen.
The press release also announces the program had 4,900,000 global “Live+1 views”, which Netflix defines as “total view hours for the program divided by the runtime. It is our nearest proxy for average minute audience (AMA)” with a cut-off at midnight Pacific time that day. That means the measurement is close to how Nielsen typically measures U.S. viewership.
The release does not disclose data for the number of viewers watching, only households.
In December 2024, Raw had an average viewer per household of about 1.36. If we apply that to this household data from VideoAmp, that would put the viewership for the Netflix premiere somewhere around 3,500,000 viewers. In 2024, Raw on USA averaged 1,660,000 viewers.
Netflix is working with VideoAmp to provide third party viewing data on the streaming the platform, including WWE content. With the exception of the recent Christmas Day NFL games, Netflix is not working with Nielsen to provide viewing data.
Notably, VideoAmp recently measured the Golden Globes award show viewership as 9% higher viewership than Nielsen’s measurement of the same telecast.
Regarding the earlier reported Samba data, a representative for the analytics company provided us with details on its methodology, noting its data is gathered from “Samba TV’s ACR is integrated at the chipset level across 24 of the top Smart TVs sold in more than 100 countries globally and captures content that crosses the TV screen, regardless of source.” Samba says its data is “balanced and weighted to the U.S. Census across age, gender, ethnicity, and household income. By contrast, Samba TV’s panel is nearly 80x larger than the legacy industry model and is aligned to the US census by 0.03%.”
We asked if Samba’s household measurement is consistently lower than household measurements of the same content by others like Nielsen. A Samba representative hasn’t yet addressed that question.
Update on Wednesday afternoon, Jan. 8:
SambaTV reported that 664,000 U.S. households watched Raw on Netflix “when it aired”. A report from Media Play News also referencing SambaTV data says 752,000 households watched Raw on the USA Network in the first week of January in 2024, which Media Play News notes is a decline of 12%.
This household data is significantly lower than Nielsen’s measurements for Raw, so I don’t know what to make of it. In December 2024, Raw averaged about 1,131,000 viewers (average minute audience, live+same-day). While I don’t have household data for January 2024, it seems very unlikely that Nielsen’s measurement would be anywhere near 752,000 households for Raw during that time.
In other words, the SambaTV data conflicts with the Nielsen data. If you assume the Nielsen data is more credible, the SambaTV data is too low. Ultimately, either source’s data is based on a sample of viewing. Nonetheless, if SambaTV’s measurement method is consistent over time and uses a substantial sample, it’s possible the 12% decline is a meaningful reflection of the difference in viewership for Raw in the first week of January this year (on Netflix) versus last year (on USA Network).
But it would be surprising that the viewership for the Netflix debut would actually be lower than that of a year ago on USA, given the hype and Netflix’s comparable reach to top cable.
I’ve contacted Netflix, WWE, and SambaTV for clarification and will provide updates if I receive more information.
Yesterday and for part of today Netflix listed Raw was the #1 TV show on its platform in the U.S.
I confirmed with Netflix earlier today that WWE programs will be eligible to be ranked in Netflix’s official weekly top 10 rankings. For its global rankings, which Raw may very well make the top 10 for, Netflix breaks out some viewing data for the full week.
Update on Wednesday morning, Jan. 8:
WWE Raw is listed as Netflix’s #1 show in the U.S. for part of today as well as yesterday, according to FlixPatrol.
Netflix confirmed to me that WWE programs will be eligible for listing in Netflix’s official weekly top 10 rankings where they break out some global viewing data as well as rank the top 10 programs by region.
Update on Tuesday, Jan. 7:
I asked Netflix on Tuesday if they would be announcing any viewership data and as of about 4:30 pm ET, Netflix said they had no information to announce. I would be surprised at this point if there is any kind of announcement revealing viewership data related to the premiere of Raw on Netflix. I’m still seeking data for this, as well as AEW on Max, and will report any information I can.
Paul Levesque didn’t mention any viewership numbers during the post-show press conference but indicated he was being informed of viewership numbers throughout the night and said that Netflix executives were pleased.
Monday, January 6, 2025 Inglewood, CA at Intuit Dome Estimated tickets distributed: 17,003
WWE announced this set a new company gate record for arena events. The highest figure we know of is for WWE Monday in the Bank in London in 2023, which drew $3.3 million. That record has since been broken multiple times, by at least Backlash in France and Bash in Berlin last year.
Market-to-market comparisons (Inglewood, CA):
2022-06-01 (Wed) – AEW Dynamite: 13,955 (+22% vs. 17,003)
2023-01-11 (Wed) – AEW Dynamite: 9,636 (+76%)
2023-04-01 (Sat) – WWE Wrestlemania Night 1: 67,303 (-75%)
2023-04-02 (Sun) – WWE Wrestlemania Night 2: 67,553 (-75%)
2023-11-17 (Fri) – AEW Collision: 4,365 (+290%)
2023-11-18 (Sat) – AEW Full Gear: 12,904 (+32%)
2023-12-30 (Sat) – WWE Live Holiday Tour: 13,847 (+23%)
2024-05-29 (Wed) – AEW Dynamite: 5,553 (+206%)
Year-over-year comparison for this event type: Current 2025-Q1 WWE Raw average: (17,003) vs. 2024-Q1 (11,418): +49%
DIGITAL
As of 7:03 pm, Jan 7
Most-viewed YouTube videos on WWE’s official channel:
1.) 961,258 – The Undertaker celebrates with Rhea Ripley 2.) 901,544 – Roman Reigns vs. Solo Sikoa – Tribal Combat: Raw on Netflix highlights, Jan. 6, 2025 3.) 859,032 – AND NEW: Rhea Ripley destroys Liv Morgan and “Dirty” Dom in title win 4.) 689,945 – John Cena makes massive Royal Rumble announcement 5.) 621,977 – CM Punk vs. Seth “Freakin'” Rollins: Raw on Netflix highlights, Jan. 6, 2025 6.) 613,713 – The Rock acknowledges Cody Rhodes and sets stage for Tribal Combat 7.) 587,097 – The Rock crowns Roman Reigns with the Ula Fala after Tribal Combat
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The ratings you’re familiar with—including the data Wrestlenomics generally reports—are measured using a method called Average Minute Audience (AMA). So for example when a show “has” 1,234,000 viewers, that represents the number of viewers averaged by the minute across the entire duration of the program.
Streaming data may be measured differently, depending on the platform.
The ratings data you’re familiar with are measured by a third party: Nielsen.
Streaming data might be the company’s own first-party measurement.
The ratings data you’re familiar with reflects U.S. viewership only.
Streaming data might be global, especially if, like WWE on Netflix, your program is broadcast throughout much of the world.
The ratings data you’re familiar with is live+same-day. It doesn’t include DVR viewing beyond about 3 am after the program airs.
Streaming has to this point in media history primarily been the home for scripted and other video on demand content. Not stuff—like sports and news and even predetermined wrestling—that people generally want to watch live and simultaneously. Otherwise, though, Netflix freed viewers from the unneeded relic of scripted TV airing in time slots.
Netflix, to its credit, publishes its weekly global top 10 programs in a way that mimics AMA. However, their data includes delayed viewing from across the entire week. This is only natural as Netflix until now doesn’t air programs in time slots.
Nielsen doesn’t yet measure specific live-streaming broadcasts the same way it measures traditional TV, except for in a few major cases, like NFL broadcasts on streaming platforms.
For streaming platforms like Peacock, Netflix, or Max/WBD—whether reported by the streamer itself, a wrestling company, or a PR-friendly Twitter account—you should ask whether that number is measured like typical Nielsen ratings, with our treasured AMA measurement. Unless it’s explicitly stated as such, it probably isn’t. Instead, the figure might for all we know be the number of accounts that tuned in for any duration—regardless of whether they watched the whole program or just a few seconds.
Have your magnifying glass out. Even if the figure is an AMA measurement, there’s another layer to consider: is it based on first-party data? If so, that means the viewership was measured by the streaming platform itself. First-party data is inherently conflicted—streamers have a vested interest in reporting the highest possible audience numbers.
By contrast, data from third-party sources like Nielsen or VideoAmp (which Netflix said will measure content like WWE Raw) is more independent. These companies serve advertisers who need reliable data to understand the size and demographics of the audience they’re paying to reach. Unlike first-party data, third-party measurements are less likely to be inflated by conflicts of interest.
What these complications around WWE and AEW putting their weekly shows on streaming add up to is that the opportunities to spin the data are fantastic and many.
AEW is streaming on Max only in the U.S. Around 50 million subscribers have access to Max in the U.S., but keep in mind many of those subscribers are just traditional HBO subscribers who probably rarely if ever use Max.
Indeed, Nielsen’s ‘The Gauge’ shows Max isn’t among the top five U.S. streaming services. (Yes, Nielsen measures streaming TV viewing in a more general sense, but doesn’t provide program-specific data.) Just over 1% of all TV time is spent using Max, which ranks well behind YouTube, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu, and Disney+. Max is more in the neighborhood of Peacock, Paramount+ and no-cost “FAST” services like Tubi and Roku.
I point that out to clarify the significant difference between Max and leaders in streaming like Netflix. AEW on Max is not WWE on Netflix. But there’s no doubt Max is putting AEW in millions of households that before this month didn’t have access to it. It should genuinely increase the size of AEW’s audience and perhaps help stabilize AEW’s declining fan metrics.
With that said, it’s possible the cannibalization effect on the traditional viewership of Dynamite on TBS and Collision on TNT won’t be extreme. I could be wrong when traditional ratings data becomes available. But how many viewers actually watch Dynamite or Collision, in an average minute on Max, I’m afraid might be a mystery or, in a better scenario, questionable.
Netflix, in contrast, is the #2 most-used streaming platform in the U.S., and #1 among the ones behind a paywall. Netflix is in more U.S. households than any top cable network and its coverage lead over those channels will only grow as cable continues to decline and Netflix subscribers, at worst, remain flat. There are about 70 million subscribers to Netflix in the U.S., around 65 million households for top cable. And that’s not even taking into consideration that plenty of individual Netflix accounts are covering multiple homes thanks to password sharing.
Unlike AEW’s simulcasts on both traditional TV and streaming, Raw in the U.S. will be airing solely on streaming.
And unlike Max, Netflix is a broadly global platform. People from all over the world will be watching Raw live on the service.
I fully expect the audience for the Jan. 6 debut of Raw on Netflix to be much bigger than the normal audience for Raw in the U.S. and elsewhere. Given the hype and talent advertised, it’s apt to be the kind of success that Netflix and WWE will put out a press release about on Tuesday morning, rightly so.
But I would be skeptical of any data Netflix and WWE disclose, again, unless they say the viewership is an average minute audience measurement. And if they want people to really trust it, they’ll release the data that VideoAmp measured, rather than Netflix’s own first-party numbers. And furthermore, the data will only be comparable to recent Raw TV ratings data if they disclose the live+same-day AMA in the U.S. only.
If I’m WWE or Netflix and I really want to spin the biggest number possible, perhaps I’d announce on Tuesday morning the number of accounts that simply logged into the stream once, globally—multiplied by the highest reasonably plausible assumption about how many viewers per account were watching. And—I’d measure not just live and same-day viewing but any activity that occurred between live and up to the hour that I’d put out the press release.
Such creative math would likely result in a figure many times greater than the 2024 live+same-day U.S. AMA of 1.66 million viewers for Raw on USA Network, which would make for an amazing apples-to-oranges comparison.
Brandon Thurston has written about wrestling business since 2015. He operates and owns Wrestlenomics.
TKO had a profitable three months from July to September, reporting $57.7 million in net income, generated from $681.2 million in revenues.
TKO raised its adjusted EBITDA (a profit-like performance metric) and revenue guidance for the year. The combination of WWE and UFC expects revenues for the full year of 2024 in the upper range of $2.67 billion to $2.745 billion, and adjusted EBITDA in the upper range of $1.22 billion to $1.24 billion.
WWE generated $326.3 million in total revenue for the quarter, up 14% from last year. UFC generated $354.9 million, down 11%. As usual UFC is more profitable, with the MMA company reporting $195.6 million in adjusted EBITDA and WWE reporting $175.3 million.
UFC has higher margins because it runs fewer events. It generates similar revenues to WWE. In the case of sponsorships, UFC generates much higher revenues than WWE. Through the first nine months of the year, UFC sold $184.3 million in sponsorships, compared to WWE’s $60.2 million. Sponsorship is an area pro wrestling has long-struggled with. The company hopes the services of Endeavor will finally unlock sponsorship value for WWE. The quarter was up to $21.7 million, much better than last year’s $14.1 million, after two quarters when sponsorship revenue was flat or down.
In Q3 this year, I estimate WWE sold roughly 400,000 tickets. This estimate is based on an assumption that 90% of WrestleTix estimates of tickets distributed represent actual sales. From those ticket sales, WWE generated $51.1 million, so I estimate WWE had an average ticket sale price of about $127. Last year in the same three months, WWE sold around 413,000 tickets. They generated $39 million with an estimated average ticket of $95.
This estimate isn’t surprising given face value ticket prices visible on Ticketmaster and other vendor websites. And this conclusion expectedly informs the story we’re seeing in attendance plateauing in recent months. Average attendances have grown steadily since Vince McMahon left creative. However, comparisons have finally leveled off in September and October. This is likely because the increased demand is being met with higher prices.
TKO CEO Ari Emanuel in prepared remarks said WWE set new live event records in 42 markets. By my count, WWE ran 47 events in the quarter. This implies nearly every event set a new gate record.
TKO COO Mark Shapiro on the call praised UFC’s leading partner, Disney. He also hyped Paramount as a potential suitor for UFC rights, which are up for renewal. This was in response to a question about why pay-per-view remains the best model for UFC. Shapiro didn’t really address the issue, given the inherent lack of reach from the high-priced paywall.
Shapiro downplayed a comment from Dana White about getting into boxing. He said that “some off-the-cuff” comments by White shouldn’t be understood by Wall Street as a specific business strategy.
Shapiro was barely challenged by the analysts on why Endeavor is spinning off Professional Bull Riders and other assets On Location and IMG into TKO. On the prior call, Shapiro was asked if PBR would be brought into TKO. He said it would not and that they didn’t want to “pollute” the TKO story.
Shapiro insisted TKO will not bid on any other Endeavor assets but that Emanuel personally could be a bidder for other Endeavor assets and that TKO would only consist of sports-related properties as it is now. The Endeavor/TKO CEO himself wasn’t on the call. His prepared remarks continue to apparently be recorded in advance, with him not being present for Q&A.
WWE President Nick Khan spoke on a TKO call for the first time. Shapiro prompted him to deliver some comments about the move of Raw to Netflix. Khan said Netflix would give 600 million viewers access to WWE content. They expect growth thanks to the added reach. He seemed to factor Netflix’s 283 million global subscribers by some multiple per subscription.
Brandon Thurston has written about wrestling business since 2015. He operates and owns Wrestlenomics.
